History, and a straight path to each NDC target

Illustrative: a straight line is neither a projection nor a pathway any state has published.

• Saudi Arabia. The line ends at the NDC's reduction taken off the 2019 level of the Climate Watch series. The NDC counts this reduction against a moving baseline, so the level drawn is the amount taken off the base year, not a cap the state has set. “Saudi Arabia commits to reduce emissions by 335 mtCO2e by 2040 relative to 2019 levels.”
• UAE. The line ends at the NDC's percentage below 2019, applied to the Climate Watch series. “UAE commits to reduce emissions by 47% from 2019 levels by 2035.”
• Oman. The line ends at the NDC's percentage below 2024, applied to the base-year level the NDC itself states. “Oman commits to an absolute reduction of 33% in national total GHG emissions by 2035 relative to a 2024 base year of 93.6 MtCO2e - 7% unconditional and 26% conditional on international finance, technology transfer and capacity-building support. Equivalent absolute reductions are 6.552 MtCO2e (unconditional), 24.336 MtCO2e (conditional) and 30.888 MtCO2e (total potential).”
• Qatar. The line ends at the NDC's reduction taken off the 2019 level of the Climate Watch series. “Qatar commits to reducing its emissions by 42 MMtCO2e by 2040 compared to 2019 levels.”
• Kuwait. The target is a cut against a business-as-usual scenario the chart does not hold, so no line is drawn. “Kuwait commits to reducing its emissions by 7.4% by 2035 compared to BAU.”
• Bahrain. The NDC sets no economy-wide GHG target, so no line is drawn. “Contribution 1: Renewable energy Total installed renewable energy capacity equal to 20% in 2035. Contribution 2: Afforestation 1.8 million trees planted. Contribution 3: Mangroves 1.6 million mangrove seedlings planted.”