Weekly energy brief

The week to 4 October 2026

What moved across the oil, gas and Saudi power data this week, what the solar fleet is expected to generate next week, and the series that refreshed. Compiled automatically from the publishers themselves; every number links to the live dashboard.

All briefs

114.89

Brent (US$/bbl)

70.3

Tracked capacity (GW)

111.7

Capture capacity (Mt/yr)

12,000

Disclosed capacity (MW)

What moved this week

Brent fell 6.36 to 114.89 US$/bbl, 5.2%.

WTI fell 6.01 to 96.41 US$/bbl, 5.9%.

Henry Hub gas rose 0.05 to 2.9 US$/MMBtu, 1.8%.

US commercial crude stocks built 2.3 million barrels to 426.4.

Managed-money net length in WTI fell 26,687 contracts to 79,592.

The week ahead

Across the 16 operational solar plants we track (13,753 MW), the irradiance forecast implies 521 GWh over the next seven days, 1.1% above the long-run normal for these dates. The strongest day is Monday 5 October, the weakest Saturday 10 October. Peak temperature reaches 38.8°C in Riyadh, 34.9°C in Jeddah, 40.6°C in Dammam. Cooling demand rises with it.

The Saudi power balance

Operational renewable capacity stands at 14.2 GW, 10.9% of the 130 GW target for 2030, with 70.3 GW tracked across every stage. Reaching the target needs 35.6 GW a year from here. Everything currently in construction and tender delivers 17.3 GW a year if it all lands on time. The pipeline is a snapshot that grows with each tender round, so these are two rates as they stand today, not a projection of the outcome. Since 2026-09, 4.0 GW was removed to the operational total. The Principal Buyer's register and the tracker record a different stage for 5 of 38 matched projects, including Haden at 2000 MW, Muwayh at 2000 MW, Al-Ghat at 600 MW. The figures above count the register's stage, because the Principal Buyer contracts the power and signs off commercial operation; that moves 5,500 MW between stages against the tracker's own reading, which stays published beside it so the correction can be checked.

Low-emission hydrogen, announced and running

The IEA's project map carries 99,150 kt a year of announced low-emission hydrogen capacity worldwide, across every stage from concept to operating. 1,349 kt a year of that is operating, 1.36% of the total; 5,321 kt has taken a final investment decision or is under construction, and the rest sits at feasibility study or concept. Saudi projects account for 1,246 kt a year, 1.26% of the world total, of which 373 kt is past final investment decision. Capacity is counted in the year each project enters the map and the map is republished once a year, so these are the announcements as the IEA last recorded them, not a rate of delivery.